If Obama Jumps the Gun, Does He Really Think That Will Play Well With Hillary Supporters?

I'm not going to dispute the fact that things are not looking good for Hillary Clinton, but until someone bows out or someone has the requisite number of delegates, there's no Democratic nominee.

Apparently Barack Obama doesn't care. 

A variety of stories are reporting that regardless of where things stand on May 20, Obama is planning on proclaiming that he is the Democratic nominee.

At that point, after the Oregon primary, most anticipate that Obama will have won the majority of PLEDGED delegates.  But he will NOT have won the majority of ALL delegates -- odds are many super-delegates will still be uncommitted plus the Democratic National Committee doesn't meet until May 31 to start trying to unravel the mess that is Florida and Michigan.

Uh, dude, there's still a process in this country.  Even if something looks or smells inevitable, you still have to wait until the everyone gets to vote and the process is finished, unless you can convince Hillary to drop out.  And you'd have to be a tad delusional to think that's going to happen any time soon.

You can't be the winner just because you say so.  That's why we have the process in the first place. John Adams and his pals fought a revolution so that no one could "proclaim" to be entitled to any office or political position.

As a country, we don't like people who just take things.  You have to stand in line and wait your turn here in America.  And do you really think that all the Hillary Clinton supporters you're going to need in the fall are really going to appreciate you just announcing that you've won, when the game ain't over?

We know from the media reports that you're not really a patient guy and that you're getting bored with the process.

In Ten Suggestions for Barack Obama, Point number 10 is, "Win This Thing.  Just Win It.  I Don't Care How."  I am totally on board with that at this point.  As a friend said the other day, I'd rather see a rock in the White House before I would vote for John McCain.  But please don't piss off us Hillary supporters by planning your own coronation before the process is finished.

That's just bad form.

After Joanne is done thinking about how the Democrats can just come together and beat John McCain, you can find her ruminating on the political world at PunditMom.

g

Comments

[jen]

this made me laugh: As a country, we don't like people who just take things. You have to stand in line and wait your turn here in America.

I mean, we ARE a country who just takes things, we took America from the Native Americans, we just took over Iraq. Wall Street took over the Government. We are takers. But I also understand your point. And we sure as hell don't want it to continue!

[Debbie]

I'm kind of a sources girl, Jo, and -- the weekly standard? dude. it's a repub blog. *of course* they're gonna tear Michelle and Barack down. it's what they exist to do. (I don't really think of right wing bias as being defined as media, 's all I'm saying -- hell, goldfarb mocks Hillary one post down from the top of the page - the guy's a biased shmuck.)

but you're right about the importance of Obama waiting to declare until things shake out more. I agree. this seems slightly shady, his current potential proclamation.

[PunditMom]

Jen, of course you're right historically. But we also obsessed turns -- I think its a Germanic thing! ;)

Deb, I agree -- I take sourcing with a grain of salt, but the comments about Obama and his impatience are all over the place. One of the reasons he decided to run for President was because after one year in the Senate he grew too impatient to deal with the Senate process. That's why I worry about his naivete. On some level, he thinks he's going to waltz into the White House and everyone is going to come together. I think he is in for a rude awakening. And I sure don't want him to get bored with the race against McCain. We can't afford that.

[Christianne]

I can appreciate your position. When I read that headline earlier today, my eyes went wide. (I'm an Obama supporter; I was surprised his campaign would make such a claim, as they are not usually so bold to make these kind of proclamations.)

Just to share another perspective and source, here's an article about Obama's interview with Brian Williams today in which he responds to this idea of proclaiming victory on May 20. I think it shows that he still has humility going on. Earlier today, I read another article in which he said the campaigning is not yet over and that he has pledged to campaign in all 50 states. Doesn't seem to me that he's assuming anything at this point.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24524627/

[Christina]

I happen to think Washington needs a little impatience. It's what I *like* about him. But then, that is my nature. I am impatient and like to shake things up and move those mountains of bureaucracy. Hey, it's why we finally have a damn clock in the break room at work. Such a simple thing but it took me lighting a few fires to get it done. Reading Dreams of My Father really enlightened me to his deeply thoughtful, understanding, 'lets do this' nature. He may be impatient with the sluggishness of DC, but he is not irrational.

Personally I have yet to hear him directly say anything to indicate he is not going to let Hillary lead this process. If/when that does come out of his own mouth (not some third party speculating about it), then I will agree with you that it is bad form.

[Cheryl]

I don't believe that he plans to jump the gun. In an interview with Brian Williams today Obama said "When Williams asked Obama if he already was the presumptive Democratic nominee, the Illinois senator said, "Not yet. I will be if Senator Clinton decides not to go on, or if we complete these six contests and we are ahead as we are now. But nothing is certain, I don't want to take it for granted." He continued, "Sen. Clinton has been written off before and came back, and she's a formidable candidate." "

IMO, the "written off before and came back" comment indicates that he is not going to rule her out unless she rules herself out.

[Tracy]

As I read this: "...Obama will have won the majority of PLEDGED delegates. But he will NOT have won the majority of ALL delegates..." I imagine you hands on hips and stamping your foot. And then running to your room and slamming the door, yelling "It's not FAIR!"

[Gunfighter]

Far be it from me to say anything that will sound like a personal attack, but I think you are way off here.

I won't dig. I won't poke... but Obama will be the nominee in the fullness of time, and those who get on board will get on board. Those who won't can be spectators.

The results won't change.

[PunditMom]

GF, I just don't get why some Obama supporters believe there is only one way to view this race. As an Edwards-turned-Clinton supporter, I am bombarded daily by other Obama supporters who believe they have the right to belittle my beliefs about this campaign. I do not do that to my friends who support Obama, though I feel I have to right to speak out about the hypocrisies I see.

I will never be a spectator in the Democratic process of my country, no matter what you say. Perhaps it's time to turn down the snark.

[Daisy]

It's not over until it's over, and even then, the battle will have just begun. I, too, am worried about alienating a large portion of the party -- large enough to exclude independents and others who might otherwise see the wisdom of a Democrat in the White House.

[Kady]

If Obama does as you're describing, he'd be stupid. Mostly b/c it would piss off a great deal of people in the party and give him very little in return. I hope he's not that dumb.

But to your point about not being able to proclaim victory: actually, the democratic party is only a pseudo-public organization. It is not the government. Which is why it has the power to disenfranchise MI and FL for not playing nice.

Proclaiming oneself to be the party nominee is not the same as proclaiming oneself to be President. Only the party would have a say w/r to the legitimacy of such a proclamation. A further example, if the powers that be in the Democratic Party wanted to declare Edwards the nominee tomorrow, they probably can (I'd have to look at their charter to be sure, but most organizations leave their executives broad powers). They wouldn't though because that would alienate most of the Democrats and would probably decimate the party in the long run.

[Glennia]

Kady is right. Obama could declare himself the nominee or the King of Siam and it wouldn't mean much. I think he should just stop running against Clinton and start running against McCain in the remaining states and focus on voter registration. Maybe she should do the same. I'd have a lot more respect for both of them if they did that and stopped dragging each other down the rathole.

[Karoli]

Believe it or not, I would like to see every state vote first. This is because I have lived in California where our votes never seemed to matter, and now that we moved up the primary to February and "Super Tuesday", I want to see the other states have their say, and I don't object to Senator Clinton continuing on.

At the same time, there is a clear effort on her part to divide the Democratic party up by race and gender. Her remark in the USA today interview about doing better with "hard-working white voters" was exactly the kind of remark which will further entrench and ultimately divide voters.

IF she can conduct herself without slapping down different groups which exist within the Democratic party, then bring it on. But right now, much of the clamor you're hearing is coming from people who are very concerned that (particularly going into WV and KY primaries), she is playing the race card to her benefit at the expense of the party.

There's no question that Barack Obama is a black guy. We all know that. The only reason to make the distinction over and over again is to validate that itty bitty fear that voting for a black guy might be a dangerous thing, better to stick with the safe. Combine that with the 'elitist' meme and you have a whole lotta pissed-off middle class college-educated strapped-for-cash-uninsured-wiped-out-by-gas-prices Democrats who might occasionally be found at Starbucks.

So if Senator Clinton asked me, and she hasn't, I would say "Hey, feel free to go for it. But do it without getting personal. Leave out the bragging rights over the good ole beer-drinking hard-working white guys, make it about the hard-working PEOPLE in the party, and take it to the end."

If she can't do that, then she should negotiate a graceful exit, stage right.

[Jozet]

Thank you for your sanity.

There will be no coronation.

There will be an election where everyone gets their vote. Hopefully.

If it's not working for reason _____, then change it next time. Otherwise, you run the risk of disenfranchising the remaining Clinton voters who might still vote for Obama. But don't try to take my vote, man. Just don't.

[jen]

Glennia, dude. Siam is so 1970's.

[Gunfighter]

Hi PM,

That was an honest opinion. I believe that some Clinton supporters would sit out the election with an Obama nomination... I just don't think that there will be enough of them to matter. I am glad to know that you won't be one of them... not that I ever suggested that YOU would.

Regarding those that belittle your support of Clinton... I haven't seen any of that, here.

[PunditMom]

I wasn't talking about my fellow MOMocrats in my comments about Obama supporters. And there was no excuse for HRC's "white people" comment yesterday.

[John J.]

No offence PunditMom, but if the numbers in that Newsweek article are correct, especially the 60+ supers waiting for someone to clinch 50% of the pledged, he will have sealed 2025 delegates, or be so close that he could get 20% or so in the couple remaining contests and still make it (giving Clinton 10% wins in KY and WV and Obama a 6% win in Oregon).

Now, I don't know if those numbers are correct, but if they are (and I assume that is what Obama's campaign is working off of) he will have won the requisite delegates.

The larger problem is that the super delegates constituting 1/3 of the delegates available DOES make choosing a Democratic nominee a coronation. No matter which candidate wins, it will have been because the supers crowned them. At least, should these numbers hold and the nominee be Sen. Obama, it will have been the people also who chose the nominee.

[Amy in Ohio]

I agree that until she concedes or the number hits 2025, no proclamation should be made. It's too delicate a time for our party to risk alienating even one voter.

[sharon]

I'm not sure why the Hillary supporters are getting their knickers in a knot. Barack's mention of 05/20 is when he's projected to get the majority of the pledged delegates, at least 1,627. At that point, Hillary cannot catch him even if she were to win 100% of the delegates in the last three primaries and then some.

Only if the superdelegates overturned the will of the people who voted in all the primaries and caucuses could she possibly get more delegates than him. And at the rate the supers are coming out for him this week, that week of 05/20 will very likely put him over the magic 2,025. Sorry Hillary fans, your girl has lost. Be gracious, it was a good hard fought fight and he came out on top.

[Chantelle]

I get where you are coming from, but disagree. I would actually like to see Clinton doing more campaigning against McCain and less against Obama. It isn't another democrat that they will ultimately be up against, after all, but a Republican, and the earlier they start turning their thoughts towards the general election the better. In the meantime, if they actually talk about their policies and quit with the political games, voters will also have a chance to see what separates them and make informed choices accordingly.
The way he is doing it might risk coming across to some voters as slightly cocky, but it beats the sort of damaging fights that have characterized the last couple months of the primaries.

[K]

This race is over. What matters now is not just how the winner wins, but more importantly how the loser loses.

Obama has been very gracious in post NC/IN interviews.

Indeed, at least Obama has not told the national press that I am not "hard working" because I have eight years of education beyond high school and earn more than $50K, one candidate tells me my elitist vote doesn't matter in the fall. Hey, Senator Clinton, don't abandon me -- I'm white and you like white people, no?