Dear Nate Silver...
Nate Silver, over at FiveThirtyEight.com has 20 questions for people who are coming out against the health care reform bill currently pending before the Senate.
Over the medium term, how many other
opportunities will exist to provide in excess of $100 billion per year in
public subsidies to poor and sick people?
Subsides don’t make coverage
affordable nor do they guarantee access. The penalty for noncompliance – that
is, for not obtaining coverage – in some versions of the bill have been
significantly lower than the cost to actually buying a plan. Baucus tried to
get round this by including a “young invincible” plan since it is critically
important for risk-spreading that young healthy people become part of large
insurance pools. The “young invincible” plan morphed into the “catastrophic
plan” (Section 1302(e) in the Senate bill) and would be available to those aged
30 or younger. Nevermind that this is when preventive care is most important
and this plan limits it to three visits.
2. Would a bill that contained $50
billion in additional subsidies for people making less than 250% of poverty be
acceptable?
At this point, real health reform
would be acceptable. The federal poverty measure is a joke. It hasn’t been
retooled in decades and $55,125 for a family of four isn’t a lot of money,
particularly when you consider that under some provisions in the bill, a family
could be stuck paying 3:1 for older members, 1.5:1 for tobacco
users, etc. And the subsidies would reduce the cost of insurance to 2% of
income for those at 100% of the FPL but could be as much as 9.8% of income for those at 400%
of the FPL.
And the deductible for small employer plans could be as much as $4000 (Sec. 1302(2) of the Senate bill). That’s almost 10% of the above family’s income.












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