Obama Picks Up Some Edwards Iowa Delegates: Devil's in the Details

I'd posted previously about the Iowa county and state conventions where delegates to all candidates on the ticket can affirm or alter their affiliation to a candidate (though most tend to stick with the one they were elected to support). Iowa, like Texas and many other states, has a multi-step process.

I'd argued that in a tight race between Clinton and Obama, she had the opportunity to pick off delegates from Edwards and Obama, and this could be one way to narrow the 100-150 delegate gap between herself and Obama--instead of putting pressure on the Michigan and Florida primaries. It would be an opportunity for Clinton's campaign to show their organizational stuff. Did it happen?

In the case of the 14 Edwards delegates, the county convention vote by delegates elected in the January 3 primary resulted in 7 going to Obama and 7 remaining pledged to Edwards in the hope of having influence at the Democratic National Convention. Clinton lost 1 delegate to Obama. (I'm not sure how the remaining 1 delegate also went to Obama, but it may be due to complexities of calculating the wins he edged out over counties that had formerly gone to Edwards or Clinton.)

Here's a summary:

The county conventions attracted unprecedented attention as the next step in a state-by-state delegate battle that began with the hotly contested caucuses on Jan. 3. Obama and Clinton brought back key members of their caucus campaign teams, staffed phone banks and paid for automated telephone calls to spur turnout and reach out to undecided delegates.

Obama originally had 20 Iowa delegates while Clinton, a New York senator, had 18. The numbers represent an estimate based on the percentage of support each candidate earned on caucus night and the number of superdelegates who have endorsed them.

But on Saturday, Obama’s Iowa total climbed by nine; Clinton’s shrank by one.

So those are the nitty-gritty details. Some might argue that the details are so small as to be irrelevant. But I'd say the microcosm can often give useful information about the macro.

The bigger picture? Obama's on-the-ground Get Out The Vote (GOTV) effort is organized, effective, and had wooed Edwards voters from early on (since well before my March 8 posting on this). They fully understand that while a gain of 9 national delegates is a drop in the bucket of the 2025 needed for Obama to win the nomination, they're doing their part to deliver for their candidate. They take nothing for granted, and have been prepared for a while to make sure support for Obama is stable or increases. In the story of the race between the rabbit and the turtle, the Obama campaign is the turtle who's ready to go the distance.

Clinton's campaign in Iowa not only failed to pick up Edwards' delegates, the remainder of which declined at this time to declare for Clinton, but lost ground by giving up a delegate to her rival. This is key. Lose a net of 9 delegates to Obama (or an equivalent percentage) in the remaining states that have this multi-step process, and the Clinton campaign could be talking about a serious erosion of the "narrow lead/near tie" situation that currently props up her legitimacy in the race for nominee.

Coattails--Who's Got 'Em?

Why is GOTV important? It gives an indication of the readiness of the campaign to woo Independents (and Republicans looking to break with their party) for the General Election. An effective, energized, successful GOTV ground game in Iowa also means OBAMA HAS COATTAILS.

See, it's not only about electing a Democrat in November (and voting against McCain), it's also electing the presidential candidate who looks most able to deliver future Democratic state assembly and congressional seats. With a Democrat for president but no solid Democratic majority in Congress, what kind of change can we expect from either the top or from grass-roots?

Consider the Clinton campaign and how it's been run so far, from ability to "sell" its candidate and her themes, to tactics taken, to effectiveness in GOTV and organization state by state. Compare that with Obama's.

And while race and gender might factor into how delegates vote or candidates are perceived, hopefully the county and state delegate conventions are about people debating with their neighbors the merits of a candidate based on something more important than race and gender--hopefully it's issues, platform, and performance.

Cynematic's personal blog is P i l l o w b o o k.