Can We Expect an October Surprise?

The election is 52 days away. I'm hearing more and more talk of an "October Surprise" (defined as an event that occurs just in time to swing a Presidential election).

Earlier this week, ABC reported that the McCain campaign is worried that the Troopergate investigation into Sarah Palin's alleged abuse of power may be turned into one that will harm their campaign.

To be honest, I don't think the people who have fallen in love with Governor Palin would give a hoot over this. After all, these are presumably the same people who re-elected George W. Bush, despite evidence that he lied to the nation about weapons of mass destruction and diverted our military from capturing Osama bin Laden and eliminating Al Qaeda in Afghanistan so we could start an unnecessary war in Iraq. Next to that, bullying a public servant to fire a former in-law seems trivial.

But over the last few days, I've been hearing lots of speculation about an operation to capture Osama -- timed just right to be the kind of October surprise that could keep the GOP in power for another four years.

As NPR reported today, the opening salvo was a raid last week by US Special Ops in Pakistan, "part of a three-phase plan, approved by President Bush, to strike at Osama bin Laden and top al-Qaida leadership."

Of course, this is very good news - especially if we can do some real damage to the terrorists' ability to launch more attacks in our country and others.

But you have to wonder about the timing.

According to the Los Angeles Times, new Predator technology that is enabling the drones to accurately identify the precise location of their targets (even when they are inside buildings) has existed for quite some time, and may have had more influence on the "Anbar Awakening" than the so-called "surge."

The Times reports that plans similar to the one being implemented now have been around since 2003.

I wonder. Are the folks within the Bush administration finally listening to Keith Olbermann?

Today's LA Times features an opinion piece about such an October surprise, by Tim Rutten, who warns that capturing bin Laden at this late date could swing the undecided electorate firmly into John McCain's camp... or not:

"If a military technology heretofore monopolized by operations in Iraq finally brings Bin Laden to answer for his crimes, Obama and his supporters can argue that the war in Iraq delayed the day of reckoning in Afghanistan.

"That's the thing about suprises, no matter the month: The consequences are as unlooked-for as the event."

Donna Schwartz Mills is happy that her home town newspaper is still capable of breaking important news stories.

Comments

[KrisUnderwood]

Here's my 2 cents: Something will happen late October/early November that will shake the election. Not sure what specifically, but something will happen. Very vague, I know. A little more specific: something potentially devastating about the candidates will come out

[GraceD]

Yup, yup, yup.

There's not enough xanax in the world to pull me through October if something like the scenario you describe happens, Donna dollin.

I'll try to stay strong and do my Kegels.

xo

[Painterskip]

I'm not a mom but a dad (I did have a mom and wish she was still here:-))

Anyway, after reading this post about Bush approving these secret attacks, I'm thinking that this could have been done 2 years ago but that the Republicans, or more specifically, the current administration and their financial supporters, have purposefully held off until now thinking that it would help them win another 4 years in office.

Just my 2 cents.

And BTW, I found your site through a post on the Bring It On! site....

PainterSkip

[cynematic]

Another Angeleno here, delighted that our hometown paper still has fangs, balls, brain, guts--whatever part of the anatomy it takes to report real news.

Say what you will about either presidential candidate, how can this year's election not be the greatest reality show on earth?

(Just remember, the revolution will not be televised. It'll be live-blogged here, at MOMocrats.)

[Why's one]

I too have heard rumors of a McCain October surprise (one that would shift the proverbial balance to Obama), but haven't found anything too substanial. At one time, scuttlebutt was that McCain was born in Panama (Canal Zone) - but I'm not certain that's it.

Personally, my main concern is that the Republicans will attempt to steal this election too...

Keep up the good work, Momocrats! Go get em!