Matt Damon on Sarah Palin: "Totally absurd...terrifying possibility."

"I want to know if she really believes dinosaurs were here 4,000 years ago, because she's gonna have the nuclear codes."

Comments

[Annie]

Wasn't the fact that the rumor that Palin said this discounted on a national news program this morning?

[SarahE]

"Bad Disney Movie". Yes.

[Nicole]

Yeah, laughing at the Bad Disney Movie reference :)

This video needs to go viral.

[Kristi]

I saw this earlier today, and added it to the many reasons I love Matt Damon. Lol. He nails my feelings about Palin right on the nose.

[ilinap]

Sigh. One more reason to love Matt Damon. Did you hear that passion in his voice?

[kBO]

A celebrity that can talk about politics and win an Oscar. HAWT.

Crawling back to my copy of Teen Beat.

[Natalie]

I think I'm in love.

[abbyjess]

*swoon* I'm even more in love with him now. Oh Matty, talk politics to me. I love it.

[Kristin]

Glad to know that someone so...uh....SMART....that's it....SMART...is on our side.

[JCK]

Sarah Palin terrifies me. On all levels.

[Tony Kondaks]

Matt Damon says if you look up the actuarial tables there is a one in three chance that McCain will die within the next four years.

Damon then boldly challenges us to "do the actuarial tables".

Well, I did...and Damon is off...WAY off.

The actuarial tables supplied by the U.S. government indicate a one in seven chance, NOT a one in three chance.

Take a look at http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html

If you add up the four years for males from ages 72 to 75 you get 0.151985 which translates to about 1/7th or one in 7.

[SacramentoBlog]

Tony-Don't you get a different actuarial table for insurance purposes if you're a cancer survivor? What if you're a multiple cancer survivor?

[Lynn]

You know what's scary? You people are scary. The lack of intelligence and real information backing up your political views is what's truly absurd. I hope you all stay home reading your teen beat magazines on election day!

[Tony Kondaks]

I was asked: "Don't you get a different actuarial table for insurance purposes if you're a cancer survivor? What if you're a multiple cancer survivor?"

Yes, that's correct.

But there are dozens of other health factors in addition to cancer and the type of cancer McCain had/has that an actuary would look at besides age and gender in order to determine a person's life expectancy. For example, the age of parents at death is a factor...and the actuary would note that his mother is still alive at 96.

In the insurance industry this is called "rating". One can be rated up in the tables if in great health -- in which case one gets a "discount" in insurance premiums over what the average person in that age and gender category would pay -- or one can be rated downwards if in worse health and pay more in premiums. Depending on the insurance company there may be as many as 14 different rates one can pay (including the worst rating which is "declined").

And without access to one's health record -- which Damon didn't have -- one can't rate anyone, and that includes McCain. So we have no choice but to go to the "average person" actuarial tables when we are invited by Damon to do so...and that's what I linked to and used.

It's also true that actuaries will also rate an individual downwards if he's in a profession that's considered "risky" and people such as pilots or tightrope circus performers would pay extra because of this. And, certainly, we must consider the profession of "President of the United States" as a VERY risky one because of the 43 presidents that ever existed, four have been assassinated. That's about a 1 in 11 chance.

However, that is a stat that would apply to ALL presidents, not just a 72-year old male. But even factoring in the 1 in 11 probability to McCain's 1 in 7 actuarial age/gender probability wouldn't bring it down to 1 in 3.

Would the cancer factor bring it down to 1 in 3? It may...but, again, without access to a health record, no one can say.

[erika]

Matt Damon is an idiot. Dinosaurs were not around 4000 years ago. Try more like 65 million. Can't believe the readers of this site would take what this celebrity has to say as a serious opinion worth supporting - pathetic.

[Glennia]

Erika, Did you actually watch the video? Matt Damon is not saying dinosaurs were around 4,000 years ago, he is asking if Sarah Palin believes that. It is a belief among some creationists that dinosaurs became extinct because they didn't fit on Noah's Ark, during the flood that happened 4,000 years ago. They do not believe that the world existed before man (they take the 7 days of creation literally, as 7 24 hour periods). I am not kidding. We went to a dinosaur museum in the deep south, and there was a children's book explaining this theory. Sarah Palin's church is part of this creationist movement, and she has gone on record to say that she does not object to creationism being taught in school. That's the issue. She may very well not follow that particular school of thought, but we don't know. Perhaps Charlie Gibson will ask her.

Tony, what if you factor in McCain's father's age of death into your equation? His mother may be alive and well at 96, but his father died of natural causes at 70. McCain's mother was also not tortured for 5 years, which I think would have some bearing on his life expectancy vs. hers. He has had several recurrences of cancer, so his melanoma is still active. Honestly, I wonder sometimes if he will make it to January after seeing his convention speech.

Regardless of the statistical chances of McCain living until 2012, I do think that Damon raises issues that should be addressed by the McCain campaign as to the qualifications and beliefs of the VP candidate.

[Lim]

Matt, what were you thinking? Were you drunk during the interview? Sarah might not be the perfect person or perfect candidate but still she's serving this country, you have to respect that. Still she's a lot better (hotter) than your waitress wife. Show some respect dude..it's not easy to be a mother. if you want to attack her, attack her policy (like a gentleman) but don't attack her for being a hockey mom. You have a wife, a mother, a step daughter and two daughters of your own. They are all mothers and going to be mothers one day. Show some decency you hollywood boy, good for nothing except making movies. How about yourself? How good are you to judge others? You rich actors won’t care for the economy, the healthcare, education as long as you have movies to shoot. I don’t think you do care about others, you’re just jealous of her popularity…more than you maybe!!!!!

[Karen]

Lim...wha?

It is because he is a "hollywood boy" that I think he should be commended for speaking up. His career is based on his public persona and he takes a great risk in sharing his thoughts this candidly. I hope more public figures have the guts to sit down in front of a camera and talk about these issues. It gets the rest of us talking...and thinking.

[Tony Kondaks]

Erika:

Yes, all of the factors you mention would presumably be considered in an actuarial assessment of McCain, in addition to all other pertinent ones.

And what that final rating would be I don't know.

But it's certain that Matt Damon doesn't know either and he was factually incorrect in saying what he said. Had Damon said that the 1 in 3 probability applied to both a first and second term (8 years total) he probably would have been on the mark. But he made specific reference to only one term...and, of course, candidates for president only run for one term at a time.

[Jamie]

In fact, the most important factor in determining longevity is the longevity of one's mother. The fact that McCain's mom is still going strong at 96 outweighs any of his other health factors. The general consensus among mortality experts who have gone on the record (google it) is that there's about a 10% chance he won't survive his first term, lower than the 15% predicted purely from the tables.

None, zero, zilch, nada (at least that I've found) have gone on the record with anything even approaching 33+%.

People are welcome to their opinions regarding Sarah Palin, but this kind of dishonesty is flat out disgusting. As was Charlie Gibson's complete and utter distortion of her "God's plan" quotes, btw.

This whole scene is becoming nauseating.

[Jamie]

Lim,

I disagree with you 100%.

I saw an episode of the show Iconoclasts on the IFC Channel a few years back that featured Robert Redford and Paul Newman. At one point, Redford was asked about why he spoke out publicly about relatively few issues, generally only causes in which he was directly involved. He didn't speak much about his political beliefs, though it was rather clear which way he leaned.

Redford basically said that while he had been given an extraordinary platform because of his fame, he recognized that there were so many others, experts in a whole host of fields, who were better qualified to speak and, more importantly, to be heard. As a result, he said it was his responsibility to use this platform very, very judiciously.

Matt Damon could learn a thing or two about class from Mr. Redford.

As an aside, that whole Iconoclasts episode was amazing. Newman and Redford are two extraordinary men.

[eastsider]

Barak Obama spent 25 years in the rev. Wright church;the reverend spoke anti-white racist verbage.What was Obamas
rationale for staying.Was it that he believed Wright's
pergorative preaching;or did he find this church useful for political expedience?